DRAFT MAVEN: Draft Knowledge

A few years ago I wrote an article that analyzed the combine's 40-yard dash to scientifically go beyond just speed. In the article (which is here) I explained that by taking into account the weight and height of the player you can further analyze the speed to match the build. This allows you to actually see which players are fast given their size instead of falling in love with short, tiny guys that can't take a hit. The analysis helped me to predict that DeMarco Murray and James Starks would...
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At this point in the year it isn't a surprise that most people think that Andrew Luck will be the first overall pick in the 2012 draft. In fact at this point a year ago many thought that it would be Luck in the 2011 draft. I think after the half of football we have a pretty good idea too as to which NFL teams will be picking in the top-10 come next year.

In today's simulation we will go through the list of NFL teams with a losing record to see if they are really competing to get to the playoff...
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This is a brand new section for the Draftology section called "Project Breakdown." Have you ever wondered why certain teams are producing so many NFL prospects? Have you ever wondered if these players are turning out great, and if the teams really are putting out the talent that they the draft says they are? I plan to go through these kinds of teams that put out a lot (or not enough) pro prospects and break it down to see if teams are really putting out filet or bologna.

The first edition of P...
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Whether people know it, each and every year the NFL Draft changes. It evolves. The league shifts every single year and teams must adjust to these tendencies. Everyone knows that it has become a pass-first league, but if I told you that the value of interior linemen was increasing for the same general reason that the value middle/inside linebackers was decreasing, then you might not truly know why. Ten years ago running backs were a building block that teams happily spent first round picks on,...
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Each and every year we see a number of varied draft grades come out based on opinions and based on how teams used their picks to become a better team. But when we see draft grades come out we unfortunately never find a consensus for any teams, and this unfortunately makes it tough to really know how teams did in the draft.

While the results are nowhere close to perfect, I have tried to find a way to evaluate draft grades for the first round of the 2011 draft based on two different factors. The...
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**Warning: This is an article which goes from the 'Double Dipping' theory. I suggest that you read the fairly quick draftology lesson on Double Dipping before reading this

Each and draft is different from year to year. For instance the 2011 draft is beyond loaded at offensive guards, defensive linemen, and in mid to late round quarterbacks. It is a very weak class at tight end, linebacker and safety. So naturally you will see some teams reach for talent to get the 'best' of the worst positions...
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There is an unwritten rule in sports that essentially states that nobody knows the true value of something until the next time something similar sells. For instance, the next time we really know what an NFL franchise is worth is the next time one sells. Also think about your Beanie Babies and Baseball Cards. Back in 1995 they might have been worth 20 dollars, but try selling your Beanie Baby for 20 dollars now and you will be laughed at. Inflation in materials, relative need, and outside cost...
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2010 NFL rookie quarterback and 1st overall draft pick Sam Bradford got a six year, 78-million dollar contract with 50-million guaranteed. That means that an untested rookie will make 13-million dollars a year which makes him one of the highest paid players in the league from day one. Also, if this player suffers a career ending injury in the first day of camp, he still gets paid 50-million dollars and hurts his team for six years of cap space. It became abundantly clear long ago that these g...
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Five years ago rookie tight end Ben Watson was a 1st round pick by the Patriots. He didn't come to terms with his team until 18-days into training camp. His agent was Tom Condon, of CAA sports. Why does this matter? Because the Patriots haven't drafted a Tom Condon prospect since.

Some may ask whether that could be coincidence but the CAA organization had ten 1st round picks in 2010. They also have had 64 first rounders in the last ten years and the first overall pick has been for CAA six of t...
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Before you start reading this article, please think about who you believe the top five running backs in the NFL are. What if I told you that I have a formula that has predicted that Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles and Reshard Mendenhall all had the tools to be great players?


The NFL Combine is one of the most intriguing events in the NFL off season and it brings together all of the best NFL Draft prospects to showcase themselves ...
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Some people think of the draft as a group of teams taking their turn to pick the best player available in the draft. This is partially true because a team will draft a player of high need that is high on their big boards, but few people know that the area of the draft matters as well.

It should be no surprise that if a team's biggest need is a kicker they won't draft one in the first round because they need one. At the same time if a team's biggest need is a QB but the next QB on your board i...
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Many draft websites out there pride themselves on their mock drafts, their big boards, their prospect rankings and their scouting reports. This site however takes pride on the science of the draft and how we can use the science to evaluate players for the future. That is where the draftology page gets it's heart and hope from, and that's where my motivation of this new "Draft Report" section come from. It is like a scouting report, except that we will break down a player from head to to...
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Many draft websites out there pride themselves on their mock drafts, their big boards, their prospect rankings and their scouting reports. This site however takes pride on the science of the draft and how we can use the science to evaluate players for the future. That is where the draftology page gets it's heart and hope from, and that's where my motivation of this new "Draft Report" section come from. It is like a scouting report, except that we will break down a player from head to toe to s...
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Each and every year we watch the draft take place and most of the time we come off of it thinking that most of the guys taken in the top-5 are the best of the best in the draft. Sure there are sleepers but for the most part we leave believing that the three of the best players were taken in the top three of the draft. Unfortunately though not every one of the top three picks becomes an elite player, and in fact not all of them are even good players.

What is actually peculiar is that if you lo...
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There is no true way of predicting who will be drafted in the upcoming draft, but history would say that the first overall will often be a quarterback. That might not necessarily be the case in the 2011 draft for the Carolina Panthers, but whichever team takes a QB first in the draft historically will take a tight end in the draft. In fact, since the 2000 draft, eight of the eleven teams that took the first QB in the draft ended up drafting a tight end in the draft. Half of those (nearly 1/3 ...
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This is a relatively off-sided topic in draftology that should not be considered a lesson but rather a theory for 2011. With the growing discussions within the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) we will potentially see some eventual changes within the draft. These changes include:

1) Expanding the number of games a season

It seems like a lock that we will have 18 games a season when it is all said and done. This means that more people will get hurt throughout the season and many p...
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Every so often I plan to have a Draftology special called "Coach Breakdown." In these articles I plan to take a coach in the NFL and look at their NFL Draft history to help breakdown what they like. Some coaches don't have a draft strategy and they draft based on value and direct need. But some coaches do have plans that they will do anything for, and that is what I want to expose.

The first lesson ironically is based on Eric Mangini who was recently fired, but I have a feeling that he ...
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One thing that is often stated by draft evaluators is that you cannot look at where the player played (or who coached them) to evaluate a prospect. The 'rule' is that you have to watch the tape on a player and see how they played technically to see how they are. It is very true that you must watch the game tape of a player to evaluate their abilities, but I completely believe that the school and coach that they played for provides an intangible way to determine how well the player coul...
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One of the biggest things that I have heard scouts say my whole life is that "Stats don't matter," and it is to this day one of the dumbest things I have ever heard. There is some truth to the statement in the fact that you can't rely on stats alone to select a player. I myself go with the a better rule in that;

"If a player didn't rack up the stats in college, don't expect them to do it in the pros."

There is no guarantee to this rule but in general there aren't many QB's in the NFL that...
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While there is no official rule about drafting a receiver late in the draft I believe it is a valuable tool that many teams have done well as of late. Some of the best receivers in the NFL were drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds, and some even weren't drafted.

Possibly the best example of a recent late round receiver steal would be Marques Colston,who was drafted 252nd overall (forth from last). Colston was from a small school and many thought that he would be a tight end, but the Saint...
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Double dipping is a relatively new but growing theory in draftatology where a team drafts two players of the same position back to back to increase their chances that they fix one of their biggest holes. While there is little information and explanation of the theory it has been named as the double down by some or as draft flooding by others. The general idea is that if you have a strong need at a position you can draft the same position two, three or (very rarely) four different times...
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It seems like every single year we have players go into their senior seasons as a first round pick but just fall out completely by the year’s end. There were two top-15 picks last year going into the season that did just this. They would be Trevard Lindley, corner, Kentucky and Greg Hardy, defensive end, Ole Miss.

Lindley was the hands down best corner going into the draft because of a load of experience in the SEC, press skills and his ability to strike down and make plays. Hardy was ...
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The title says it all and even with a good argument most draftniks and experts will say that drafting a punter or a kicker in the NFL draft is like drafting a kicker in the middle rounds of your fantasy draft. And it does make some sense to not draft someone when only a select few teams are so bad off that they need to draft one. Great punters and kickers also do not come around that often so there often aren't too many guys that are even picked up to start.

But when it comes down to it...
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When it comes to the NFL draft there will always be a debate about whether a team should take their biggest need or to take the biggest asset. There is unfortunately no correct answer to the question, but there are correct ways to think about it.

A team must look at their needs first. If they need a QB, Left Tackle, or elite pass rusher then you must first take them. There is an old rule with this that goes "You need a QB to lead the team, a LT to protect your QB and a pass rusher to a...
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