Many draft websites out there pride themselves on their mock drafts, their big boards, their prospect rankings and their scouting reports. This site however takes pride on the science of the draft and how we can use the science to evaluate players for the future. That is where the draftology page gets it's heart and hope from, and that's where my motivation of this new "Draft Report" section come from. It is like a scouting report, except that we will break down a player from head to toe to see whether they are the prospect they look like. These reports are set up not to break them down into a draft segment, but rather to see if the player is much better (or worse) than most seem to think they are.

Jake Locker, QB, Washington

50% of draft analysts believe that Jake Locker would have gone 1st overall in the 2010 draft. At worst he wouldn't have likely fallen out of the top-10 because of his potential, his fairly good technique and his ability to move. Going into this season about 80% of analysts thought that Locker would be the first round pick this year. After another disappointing season by Locker and an even more disappointing Senior Bowl week it looks as if Locker could fall to even the 3rd round when it is all said and done. Not every team will look at Locker as a draftable prospect any more, and some might see him only as a project.

Pros:

* Strong Arm
* Good Mechanics
* Great Footwork
* Good Leadership Abilities
* Great Outside of the Pocket
* Pro Style Experience

Cons:

* Elite Accuracy
* Great Pocket Awareness
* Ability to make all the throws consistently
* Clean Injury Slate

Syndromes:

David Carr (no confidence because an awful offensive line never gave him a pocket
JaMarcus Russell (big arm and great mobility do not make up for good quarterbacking)
Homer-itis (wanted to win for his home, came back another year for his team, but was that really best for his team?)
Leader-itis (never confuse a leader from a winner)

Statistically:

Below you will see Locker's stats. There should be five things that jump out.

  1. Locker played in 40 college games and only won 15 of them (37.5%). If you take away the 2008 season which started and ended poorly because injuries you would see that he won two more games each season that he played

  2. His completion percentage improved every year except in 2010.

  3. Again, if you take out 2008 you would notice that his TD to INT ratio got better (.93 to 1.9 to 1.9) with more experience and with his switch to a pro style offense in 2009.

  4. 2010 AD1: This is a statistical adjustment if he hadn't played the Nebraska games this year. You will notice that his stats statistically improved. This might be a little unfair to toss out bad games but with no OL and a great DL mixed with a top notch DB core it was a terrible match up for Locker.

  5. 2010 AD2: This is a statistical adjustment from AD1 in that I got rid of the Stanford and UCLA games in which he played with a broken rib which took him out of the corresponding Oregon game around it. This isn't purely fair either but he broke the rib in the Stanford game, missed the next game against Oregon and then came back hurt to play against UCLA.



If you look at the 2010 AD 2 data you would see that his accuracy was actually very good given the OL and WR talent he had to deal with. His YPA was ok, his YPG were good and his TD to Int Ratio was top notch.

Breakdown

Overall if you break down what Jake Locker is on and off the field you would see a QB that is a great athlete, a great teammate and a great guy. But unfortunately that hasn't translated into success. He has gotten a passing nod because his OL has been an abysmal mess his whole career, his defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, his receivers can't catch a ball and he had no run support until this year. That passing nod lasted only so long and after a 7-6 season in which he looked very ok he is losing support. Locker technically is the best QB prospect in the draft because of his mechanics and footwork, but does he have the confidence to play in the NFL after having such a bad OL? Will he book it and run under pressure to much, and will he stay healthy?

I think that thing that helps Locker is that he has the fewest issues this year compared to the rest of the class:

  • Blaine Gabbert is inaccurate, from the Spread and has poor footwork and technique
  • Ryan Mallett has terrible footwork, no pocket awareness and has so nasty rumors
  • Cam Newton has one good year, has NCAA issues, decision making issues
  • Pat Devlin has good technique but terrible pocket presence and doesn't take risks
  • Colin Kaepernick has a strange throw, from a strange system and was a 5th rounder at the start of the year
So why not like Locker as a prospect? Each and every QB to go in the first 3 rounds is going to need to be coached and will be a project, so why not take the one with high potential, a good arm, and experience on a terrible team? I think Locker is still a 1st rounder and I don't know why the Seahawks (who actually like local talents) would pass on him at the end of the 1st when they can have him sit behind Hass for a year.