At this point in the year it isn't a surprise that most people think that Andrew Luck will be the first overall pick in the 2012 draft. In fact at this point a year ago many thought that it would be Luck in the 2011 draft. I think after the half of football we have a pretty good idea too as to which NFL teams will be picking in the top-10 come next year.

In today's simulation we will go through the list of NFL teams with a losing record to see if they are really competing to get to the playoffs, or whether they are just getting by waiting to see if they will win the Andrew Luck Lottery. We will also take a look to see which teams realistically would take Andrew Luck first overall should they 'win' the lottery.

Not Lucky

1) Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) 

Could the Eagles draft Andrew Luck? Sure. But I highly doubt that the Eagles would take Luck less than a year after giving Michael Vick such a big contract. It is much more likely that the Eagles would be forced to take someone to protect Vick rather than to compete for time.

2) Carolina Panthers (1-5) 

Anyone who thinks that the Panthers are purposely losing to get Andrew Luck is an idiot. Cam Newton has played lights out at times this year, and the team will be top notch when the team builds around him and bolsters its defense.

3) Indianapolis Colts (0-6) 

Some will disagree here, but I highly doubt that the Colts would draft Luck. The team just made their guy the highest paid QB in the game at the beginning of the season, and Peyton Manning doesn't seem like the type that would like to bring a guy along (or compete with).  

Possible, But Un-Luck-ly 

1) Cleveland Browns (2-3) 

I believe that the Cleveland Browns are happy with Colt McCoy, and I honestly believe that they are interested in building around him for the future. But if out of some insane circumstance McCoy leads the team to a 3-13 record and a 1st overall pick at the end of the season then I completely believe that the team would pounce on Luck.

2) St. Louis Rams (0-5) 

The same from the Browns might actually be the decision that the Rams will have to make. The Rams are awful this year, and the 9.8 PPG  (which is nearly 5 PPG worse than any other team) is pathetic. Sam Bradford was pretty good in 2010, but has only 3 TD's this season with two picks, and his completion percentage is down seven percent. He also is missing time which might be just one more reason why a 1st overall pick might validate Andrew Luck. Given the rookie salary cap the investment for Luck is the same as a receiver (or whatever position was taken).

3) Arizona Cardinals (1-4) 

The Cardinals traded a good amount to get Kevin Kolb, but he has proven to be slightly less impressive than many thought. If the Cards actually finish with the Luck pick then you had better believe that they will consider him. More than likely the team would go another way, but Luck would be strongly considered.

 Just Might Need Some Luck

1) Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

I actually really like Tony Romo, but it is half a fact that the coaching staff just doesn't trust him 100 percent. If the Cowboys crap out then you should absolutely expect the team to go after Andrew Luck. Tony Romo can put up some stats, but Andrew Luck could do better things.

2) Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) 

I think Chiefs fans have finally come to the conclusion that Matt Cassel isn't the long term option in Kansas City. He is a great backup, but he just isn't the guy to take the team to the next level. If the Chiefs crap out, then they would have to take Luck.

Could Use Some Luck

1) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) 

Sure the team took Blaine Gabbert, but Gabbert is 1/10th as good as some ESPN guys thought he was going to be. The team cannot truly believe that coach Jack Del Rio is the long term option, and should he be gone then the new coach will push for his guy. And you can bet your butt that Luck would be 'his guy.'

2)  Minnesota Vikings (1-5) 


The Vikings reached for Christian Ponder, but if he can't get them some wins then he will be as good as gone when the team drafts Luck.

Needing Luck

1) Seattle Seahawks (2-3) 

The Seahawks have angered me for a few years now for not taking a quarterback, and it shows. If the team somehow ends with the Luck pick then they had better draft him. Luck not only would make the Seahawks a better team, but getting him would prevent him from falling into the hands of a division rival.

2)  Denver Broncos (1-4) 


The Tim Tebow era has begun, but you had better bet that his success will decide whether the team goes after Andrew Luck (or any other QB) in the 2012 draft. Simply put, if Tebow succeeds then the team wins games and uses their mid to high draft pick to build around him, and if he sucks then they use their early pick to replace him.

3) Miami Dolphins (0-5)

It should be a 100% fact at this point that the Miami Dolphins are trying to lose games. The team has a very good offensive line, an ok group of receivers, and some talent rushing the ball. The team also has a defense with some very strong weapons, so why are they rocking the goose egg? Because of their terrible quarterback play. When Chad "would be a backup for 31 other teams" Henne was awful before he got taken out, and the team has shown no urgency to find someone to win games. 

***My prediction of the top-10 for the rest of the season***
 
Here are my predictions for the top-10 draft picks going towards the end of the season. Right now the Dolphins, Rams and Colts are leading the pack, but I just believe that certain teams will get some wins over time.
 
10) Denver Broncos

Is Tim Tebow the savior? Probably not (although I won't bet against it), but his ability to make plays will win the team some games. A top-10 finish might also be enough to keep the team away from going towards another QB.

9) Saint Louis Rams

The Rams are the worst team in football after the first few weeks, but Sam Bradford will eventually get a few wins away in the terrible division.

8) Arizona Cardinals

Like the Rams, the Cardinals are awful, but they will get a few wins over the course of the season from bad teams in the division, and at home.

7) Seattle Seahawks

Ok, enough with teams from the West, but pretty much the same story throughout as the Rams and Cards.

6) Cincinnati Bengals

This might be a slight surprise, but the idea that the Bengals are 4-2 just doesn't stick to me. The team has the best defense statistically in the league, but the team has only faced the Broncos, Browns, Bills, Colts, Jags, and 49ers so far this season, and it will be tougher the rest of the way.

5) Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings stink, and I doubt Christian Ponder does much, but the run game/defense will steal some wins the rest of the way.

4)  Miami Dolphins


The Dolphins stink so far, but I really think they will get some wins. They have a lot of weapons, and they are a solid quarterback away from a 10-win team, so they might screw themself out of the Luck race.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags stink. The defense isn't too bad, but the offense just can't get much going. They might steal a few more wins from some teams, but I just don't think the Jags (or the coach) will be together at the end of the season.

2) Kansas City Chiefs 


The Chiefs might be able to steal a few wins along the way, but they are far from a good team. The quarterback play is poor, the running back core is fragile, and the offensive line isn't there. Defensively the team can do some things, but they have been exposed by good teams.

1) Indianapolis Colts 


I truly think the Colts are on pace for the 1st overall pick. The winner of the MVP award should be Peyton Manning, because him not playing this year is costing this team ten wins. Peyton 'might be back' this season, but I can't imagine that the Colts will put him in to get a slightly better draft pick, and I think the team would rather just finish with a great draft pick. What's funny is that the Colts could 100% trade this draft pick to a team to get a ton back.