Do you want him? Because even after his combine talking
I still haven't found anyone who does...


The draft is coming much faster than it feels like for this time of the year, but it is actually less than two months away. It seems as if at least two quarterbacks will be going in the top half of the first round, and two could even be gone in the top three. There are many people that hate the idea of Cam Newton going to there team, while others would be ok with it given his potential. But I still haven't found someone that wants Blaine Gabbert.

It really is a strange situation that I have never seen before. It seems like nobody wants Blaine Gabbert on their team despite the fact that he could be the first overall pick. I actually have gotten over twenty different emails since starting mocks on this site about how their team won't draft Blaine Gabbert, and how their team will go after a safer pick like Christian Ponder or Ricky Stanzi a little later on in the draft. Is Blaine Gabbert that bad? For a first round pick would a team be better off waiting  for someone with no arm strength (Ponder) or someone with no proven accuracy (Stanzi)? Let's go into Gabbert first.

Build

Gabbert is a solid 6'4, 235 pounds with big 10-inch hands and good speed (4.6 combine). He also carries a fairly strong arm with him which will intrigue many teams. He has good leg strength which allows him to run with the ball if needed, and nobody will question that. His work ethic has seen some minor questions due to the fact that he looks a little bit too pudgy in the pads, but it is not THAT big of an issue.

Stats

Blaine Gabbert lost his freshman season when he was dumbly put into the end of a game in 2008. In 2009 he went 8-5 as a starter while throwing roughly 3,600 yards, 24 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. This last year he went 10-3 as a starter, threw 3,200 yards, 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. To his credit though his completion percentage did go from 58% to 63% between years, but unfortunately his YPA dropped from 8.1 to 6.7.

Overall his stats are not too bad, but you have to wonder why he threw eight fewer scores at a worse YPA between years. You also have to wonder why the team's former quarterback Chase Daniel went undrafted (height was an issue) after throwing for 4,350 yards, 39 scores, 18 picks, at 73% completion and an 8.2 YPA average the year before Gabbert started.

Scheme

The Missouri offense runs a short passing spread scheme which utilizes a player to not have to need much arm strength, but it also increases the player's accuracy significantly. So you have to wonder why a strong armed player wasn't utilized a little more. You also have to wonder why Gabbert's accuracy was so awful given the offense he was in. Finally you have to consider the fact that Gabbert took very few pro style drop backs in the offense, especially given the short throw patterns.

Other

Do I think that Gabbert wants to win? Yes. But what quarterback doesn't? I personally don't trust a player that doesn't throw at combine, especially if goes into interviews and says "I'm the best QB in the draft without a doubt." Gabbert also took a little jab at his counterpart Cam Newton by stating that 'the way that he was raised' helps him out quite a bit. I just don't think that a player that went 0-2 in bowl games and only 2-4 against ranked teams should be considering himself the "winner of the draft"

**So which teams want Gabbert? If you look at the insider tips from many writers across the land then you would possibly think nobody. ESPN and the NFLN seem to love Gabbert, but I haven't heard one source whether it be a fan or a beat writer tell me that their team likes Gabbert, or should like Gabbert.

Given the fact that he likely won't fall too far in a draft that has a huge need at QB, I think that his stock for each team looks like this:

Carolina: There is a little bias here since I have been projecting Cam Newton 1st overall since November, but I would put it at 40 percent chance. I think that the Panthers truly will looks at Cam Newton as the top choice given the fact that he is essentially the same type of project as Gabbert, but more athletic and more of a 'winner.'

Denver: 10 percent. Denver has Tebow and Orton, but the new staff seems to be clueless on what to do with them.

Buffalo: 50 percent. This depends a bit on the first two picks, but if Newton and Dareus are gone then I'd give it a 50-50 shot that they go quarterback. They could go with a number of other guys, but the team's most important need to fill is at QB.

Cincinnati: 50 percent. I don't personally believe that Carson Palmer is actually gone, but if he is then the team needs a QB early. Do you know who Carson's backup is? His brother Jordan. If the team is moving on without Carson then I'd say that this is at 60 percent.

Arizona: 60 percent. I am starting to like this spot more and more for him. The team might go free agent, but they might like Gabbert's potential. If Von Miller and AJ Green are gone then they likely will have to go Fairley/Peterson which might not be as important to them as a new QB.

Cleveland: 2 percent: Fans finally have a QB that they believe in, so why ruin what you have?

San Francisco:
50 percent. If he falls here because the best players in the draft were taken ahead, then I'd say they pull the trigger, but I don't think the team wants a non-accurate player for an offense that thrives on accuracy.

Tennessee: 75 percent. At this point in the draft most of the top talent is gone. They also don't have many huge needs that they would picks (don't go WR or OL too often in the 1st round), and so they really might take a QB here.

Dallas: 1.5 percent. If Newton falls this far then I'd give him a 33 percent chance, but the team has no need for Gabbert.

Washington: 70 percent. Again if the top talent is gone, they might have to do it instead of reaching. Gabbert is the definition of Rex Grossman (strong armed guy with no accuracy), so he might not work that well.

Houston: 0 percent. The team has gone offense only three times in the first round of franchise history, and it will be a long time until they go QB again after David Carr.

Minnesota: 90 percent: Fans and coaches demand a quarterback and if a 'quality' one falls this far then the franchise has to pull the trigger

****So who do I think takes Gabbert given the odds? It does depend on his pro day that is coming up, but here are the odds on where I think he lands given that the Panthers go with Newton 1st overall.

Tennessee Titans: 30 percent. Given the entire draft I really could see him falling here.
Arizona Cardinals: 15 percent. The team needs an answer and a free agent isn't any more of a guarantee
Cincinnati Bengals: 11 percent. They might get a chance, but I don't quite see it
Carolina Panthers: 10 percent. I just don't see a reason to take him 1st overall given the lack of upside for the cost
Washington Redskins: 9 percent. If he falls to 10 he's likely gone.
Buffalo Bills: 8 percent. They need an answer and Fitzgerald gives them some time to train him
Minnesota Vikings: 7 percent. He has to go here if he falls here.
San Francisco 49ers: 5 percent: I just think they want someone else, even if he is there.
Other: 5 percent. Never count out the Dolphins, Jags, or another team.