I'm sure you have seen a hundred different mock drafts out there with a million different combinations of players. Today I will take each of the guy that the Texans are targeting first overall, and I will create a mock draft (first 10 picks) based on that single selection. With those ten mock drafts I will analyze any findings.

1) IF THE TEXANS TAKE JOHNNY MANZIEL

Likelihood: 10%

1. Houston Texans: Johnny Manziel, QB, TAMU
2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina


This is where some bias of mine comes in, but I just don't see an offensive tackle here in most scenarios. It is a very deep tackle class, Jeff Fisher doesn't value the position, they just gave Roger Saffold good money (whether he plays OT or OG), and they have a second pick at 13 and not many teams with an absolute need at the position.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Sure this could be Mack or Watkins, but the team needs a QB now.

4. Cleveland Browns: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

This could go anywhere, but in this scenario the Browns really have to go QB. The only other pick worth taking is WR, but I just don't see solidifying receivers around Jimmy Garapollo, etc.

5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

I think the Raiders would love to land a QB, but I don't think Derek Carr is going to be that guy (here). They could go with a tackle here, but they have signed two guys this offseason, and drafted one in the 2nd round last year.

6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack, DE, Buffalo

The Falcons might go OT here, but remember that the Falcons paid Sam Baker big money last year to play LT. I doubt that they go with one here when Mack is still on the board.

7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

This is a very high spot, but this is a Bucs nightmare spot. They don't need a tackle, there isn't a LB really worth this pick, and nobody fell to them. Donald's stock is rising though, and he could possibly go this high.

8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn

I don't like predicting trades, but this one makes too much sense. The Vikes gladly fall back for some cheap value, and the Dolphins get a valuable tackle.

9. Buffalo Bills: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

The Bills don't love linemen early, but it's hard not to take this one.

10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert, CB, OK State

It's funny. The Lions have needed a 2nd (and 3rd) receiver, and a corner for years.

2) IF THE TEXANS TAKE JADEVEON CLOWNEY

Probability: 25%

1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney
2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Greg Robinson

If Clowney goes at 1 then you should fully expect the Rams to trade back for anything. But I don't see anyone trading for someone outside of Watkins (maybe too early), and Mack. If they have to pick then I expect Robinson to go.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel


The Browns will be really interesting. They could go with Watkins, a QB, or trade back. Don't be shocked to see the Vikes pop here though.

5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater
6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Sammy Watkins
8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Jake Matthews
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, WR, TAMU
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert


3) IF THE TEXANS TAKE DEREK CARR

Probability: Slim

The chances are low, but Carr is the best win-now QB in the draft.

1. Houston Texans: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater
6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Sammy Watkins
8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Greg Robinson
9. Buffalo Bills: Jake Matthews
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert


4) IF THE TEXANS DRAFT GREG ROBINSON

Probability: Low

1. Houston Texans: Greg Robinson

I hate the move, but maybe the Texans decide to go with a clean guy to build on their line. No QB is perfect, Clowney is flawed in the mental aspects, Mack might not be a 1st overall pick, and Robinson has overtaken Jake Matthews to some.

2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater
6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Sammy Watkins
8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Jake Matthews
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert


5) IF THE TEXANS TAKE JAKE MATTHEWS

Probability: low

This happens if they Matthews over Robinson and the same factors that went into Robinson

2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater
6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Sammy Watkins
8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Greg Robinson
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert

6) IF THE TEXANS TAKE KALIL MACK

Probabilty: low

1. Houston Texans: Kalil Mack

Some experts have this happening in their mocks right now, but it won't happen. Mack shouldn't be put over Clowney's potential to go first overall, and I don't see him being worth more than a QB.

2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater
6. Atlanta Falcons: Greg Robinson

They could go with Watkins, but this might be the scenario where the Falcons would go with a tackle. They need both pass rushers to go in the top-5.

7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Sammy Watkins
8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Jake Matthews
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert

7) IF THE TEXANS DRAFT TEDDY BRIDGEWATER

Probability: 10%

1. Houston Texans: Teddy Bridgewater

He might not be the most pro-ready, the best in terms of size, or the biggest upside, but Bridgewater might be the best QB in this draft. He could easily take a Aaron Rodgers-esque career path.

2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins
6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Aaron Donald

8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Greg Robinson
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert

8) IF THE TEXANS TAKE SAMMY WATKINS

Probability: low

1. Houston Texans: Sammy Watkins

The chances are slim, but they are likely about as good as one of the tackles. Watkins is arguably the best player at his position in the draft, he would help turn the team into an offensive nightmare, and he will help add an extra burst of youth to the team.

2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
5. Oakland Raiders: Teddy Bridgewater

6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Aaron Donald

8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Greg Robinson
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert

9) IF THE TEXANS TAKE BLAKE BORTLES

Probability: 51% (better than half)

1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles 
2. St Louis Rams (from Was): Jadeveon Clowney
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Johnny Manziel
4. Cleveland Browns: Teddy Bridgewater
5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins
6. Atlanta Falcons: Kalil Mack
7. Tampa Bay Bucs: Aaron Donald

8. TRADE: Miami Dolphins: Greg Robinson
9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans
10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert


RESULTS

So what did we learn? We learned that a lot of teams will land the guy they want in most scenarios, but that there is no perfect result. I think that I am underestimating where the offensive tackles go, and I may overestimate quarterbacks. Kalil Mack I think might be a slam dunk pick at number six, and Watkins very easily could be a Buc. Justin Gilbert went every time to Detroit, and it is very possible that he will be there come draft day.