This is the trade that will most likely happen, but there is no true way of knowing who will pull the trigger until it happens. There are a few teams that could pull this trigger, and here are my odds for each of them:

Jags (2nd pick) trade up with the Chiefs (1st pick)

The Jags might fall in love with Geno Smith and decide that it is worth swapping some picks to guarantee that they land him. Last year (in a much stronger draft) the Browns traded three mid/late round picks to move up from 4th to 3rd. I think that this is about the value the Chiefs would demand, but they sure as heck would like to get a 2nd round pick back after trading one for Alex Smith.

Raiders (3rd pick) trade up with the Chiefs(1st) or Jags (2nd)

The Raiders might have to give the same as the Jags would to pull the trigger. The Chiefs likely would demand more value to let their division rivals get a new QB. But then again Andy Reid is unpredictable. 

Eagles (4th pick), Browns (6th pick), Cardinals (7th pick), Bills (8th pick), or Jets (9th pick) trade up

Does Chip Kelly want a young athlete to groom behind Mike Vick? Do the Browns want to start fresh at QB after grabbing Brandon Weeden last year? Do the Cardinals think that they are a QB away from a title? Do the Bills think that Geno Smith is the playmaking QB that they have needed for awhile? And do the Jets want to start fresh at QB now to possibly secure Rex Ryan as coach for a few more years?


I think that the Eagles, Browns and Jets might hold off as they have other options that they could rely on. I do think that the Cardinals might be possibly willing to give up a first round next year if they truly think that they are a Geno Smith away from the playoffs. They do tend to prefer veterans though. The Bills also might not be willing to give up a 1st next year, but I could see them pull something off.

2)  The Dolphins obtain Brandon Albert

The Chiefs might not be able to get the value they want for the first overall pick, and they might love Luke Joeckal enough to not risk losing him. Like I said earlier, they really would like to get a 2nd round pick back since they traded one for Alex Smith, and the Dolphins might be willing to toss one out to get a left tackle.

3) The Buccaneers trade for Darrelle Revis

I don't think this trade scenario is gone. The Bucs need a corner and might be willing to trade their 13th overall pick this year to get him, and they might even be offering extra picks. I could also see them swap their 1st for the Jet's second this year while also giving a 1st in the 2014 draft. This gets the Jets some power in both drafts.

4) The Vikings trade up

This could end up being a very possible trade for the Vikings. They might really love a certain player that could 'change' them completely. Maybe the team can steal Dee Milliner from potentially the Lions? Maybe they want a playmaker like Tavon Austin to replace Percy Harvin? Maybe they can snag Star Lotulelei? The Vikings have not been scared to pull the trigger in the draft lately, and they might move around.

5) The 49ers trade up

The Seahawks and 49ers have gone tit-for-tat this offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if they put together a mass of picks to grab a monster player. The 49ers have five of the first 93 picks, and three picks in the first two rounds. If Dee Milliner doesn't go to the Lions I could easily see the Browns trade back to let him go to the 49ers. Maybe the team loves safety Kenny Vaccaro? And just imagine if they could add a weapon like Star Lotulelei or Jarvis Jones wound up a 49er?

6) Those top-10 teams trade back into the first for a QB

A few of the teams will fall in love with Geno Smith, but I can almost guarantee that a team (or two) will like a different guy that they can get later on in the first. Maybe the Raiders love E.J Manual and are willing to give up something to get him? Maybe the Cardinals love Matt Barkley? And maybe the Bills love hometown-ish guy Ryan Nassib enough to gobble him up?

This has become a trend for a number of teams, and I think it could happen a few times in this draft. There are at least 7 teams in the top-10 that need a new QB, and one of them would love to give their 2nd and 3rd round picks up to get one in the late first. Sure the Raiders could trade a 2nd rounder to move up for Geno Smith, but getting a guy with huge potential like Ziggy Ansah and another QB they like (let's just say Manuel) might be the better option.

In a draft where you just don't love what you are getting, it makes so much more sense to get a stud defensive player and take a risk on a 2nd round quality QB. If that QB fails then the cost was very little.

7) The Patriots trade out of the draft

Ok, so they won't trade out of the draft completely, but don't expect them to pick in the top-50. They cashed their pick load in last year because it was a great draft, and they will be drooling over the potential to get value next year to get out of this crappy draft. I completely expect them to walk away with a 2014 1st round pick somehow, and I will guess that the Panthers pull the trigger on the deal to get another guy this year.