The Kevin Kolb trades rumors have been going on since he was forced into a backup role last season after Michael Vick stormed onto the field. There were a number of teams that likely skipped drafting a quarterback in the 2011 NFL draft because they thought that they could have a chance of landing Kolb in a trade when the lockout comes to a close. These teams may include the Arizona Cardinals, the Miami Dolphins, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Buffalo Bills. But after looking back at Kolb from a film point of view, from a statistics point of view, and from a system point of view, I don't know that I would give even a 3rd round pick for Kolb.

TAPE


I wish that there was a lot of tape on Kolb playing for the Eagles online, but unfortunately he doesn't. In fact Kolb only has nine games where he has attempted 10 or more passes. In retrospect, Michael Vick had 11 games just this season. From the tape that I did find though, I found some major pros, and some major cons to Kolb's game,

Pros

When you watch Kolb operate you notice that he drops back into the pocket and delivers the ball to an open receiver very well. He looks for his deep threats often, but he then looks instantly after for his tight end/slot threat so that he can dump it off and still get production. His technique, arm strength, and location are very good too.

Cons


Kolb is able to hit his receivers when they are open, but I just haven't seen his ability to put it in that pretty tight hole that others do. Most of his highlight passes were ones where the receiver caught it without a defender within a yard on them, and even more of his highlight passes finished with one of the many dynamic receivers breaking through for big plays (something Kolb controls very little of). When Kolb did throw the ball in tight holes there often were mistakes, and he sometimes through the ball without any awareness of the defender waiting to pick the ball off. Kolb also did some things that I just can't support, and that is holding onto the ball slightly too long (especially with the Philly offensive line), and he didn't quite hold onto the ball good enough.

STATS

There are so many different ways to look at stats, but I will quickly go through each of Kolb's four seasons, and then analyze with some other stats.

2007

Kolb was thrown in as a rookie during the last few moments in a blowout against Detroit. He didn't attempt a pass, but was sacked twice and lost a fumble.

2008

Kolb got some playing time in six games, but only significant time in one game against the Ravens where Donovan McNabb was pulled early. Kolb went 10 for 23, with two interceptions which is dreadful, but again this was a game where Donovan McNabb wasn't much better. Overall Kolb went 17 for 34 for the season, with four interceptions, and zero touchdowns.

2009

Kolb's coming out party started during the first three games of the year. After McNabb cracked a rib in the opening game Kolb was thrust in as the starter for 2.5 games. The first game was finishing up in the opening game against Carolina. Kolb completed a very solid seven of his eleven passes, but only registered 23 yards passing, and fumbled twice (losing one).

The next game was a blockbuster where Kolb completed 31 of his 51 passes for 391 yards, three interceptions and his first two career touchdowns. The yardage was a blockbuster number, but the game was a 22-48 loss against the Saints. The third and final game Kolb would see playing time in the season was arguably his best career game. Kolb went 24 for 34 passes for 327 yards and two scores. He also ran for a 1-yards score as well.

Overall it is hard to not like the limited time that Kolb played. In his two games that he actually started he averaged 359 yards and two scores. But he also was able to do this against the 22nd and 26th ranked pass defenses which needs to be considered.

2010


A year after Kolb came in for McNabb it was 'fate' that McNabb was traded to the Redskins which paved the way for Kolb to lead the team. Perhaps, however, it was fate that Kolb would also get injured to have his backup show him up. Kolb started against the Packers and threw an unspectacular five for ten passes, with a fumble and three sacks. Kolb would never regain his role as full time starter, but when Michael Vick went down with an injury Kolb would see four games with playing time.

In those four games Kolb would complete 92 of his 143 passes for 1,111 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. He would end up losing games against two teams that picked in the top-10 this year, while surviving a close game against another. Kolb was also sacked seven times, fumbled four times (losing two).

Kolb would then see playing time in the last game of the year against the Cowboys (again team picking in the top-10). Kolb would go 18 for 36 for three interceptions and only one touchdown. Kolb was also sacked six times, and lost a fumble. I would say that Kolb also lost the game, but it was the last game of the year with lots of backups.

Overall Kolb has a 61% career completion percentage, 11 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, has been sacked 21 times, and has lost five fumbles out of his eight overall. Not spectacular to say the least.

Sacks Fault Rate

Some might think that the sack information that I have given has been unfair because of Philly's OL being pretty poor, but if you look at the percentage of sacks after three seconds (fair to say three seconds of time is the QB's fault), you would see that it is a concern. Kevin Kolb was sacked 16 times in limited time this past season, but seven of them were his QB-Fault. That rate puts his at 11th worst among quarterbacks sacked 10+ times. To his defense Michael Vick did finish 3rd worst in the league, but the offensive line (with the 3 seconds rule) was at fault for only 4 more sacks than they were with Kolb which likely tells you how much of Vick's mobility actually helped the overall problem.

SYSTEM

Normally I wouldn't include this in an NFL QB comparison, but it almost seems like the Eagle's offense is one of the dominant "systems" in pro football. While Kolb threw a few great 300+ games in his coming out party in 2009, it needs to be noted that Donovan McNabb threw for 300+ yards four times in 2009, and 250+ four other times. Michael Vick went for 300+ three times in 2010 in only ten starts, and over 250 yards eight times. Every quarterback has great passing days for the team.

OVERALL

Overall I don't quite get why teams are looking to trade one or even (rumored) two 1st round picks to obtain Kevin Kolb. Kolb had two impressive games against bad passing defenses in 2009, and lost his starting job after one start in 2010. Statistically Kolb is only half as impressive as he is hyped up to be, and he isn't that great with a pocket presence for looking outside of system. On film he has made rookie mistakes despite being a three or four year NFL player, and if you are looking at trading for Kolb you have to see him as a very good 27 year old rookie that is going to demand 15-million a year. It just doesn't make sense, and I don't understand what Kolb has shown to teams that would make them not draft a QB in a draft with hopes of getting him later.